Riding out the storm

Wind Dancer, a Swan 51, lies to its storm anchors in St. George’s Harbour, awaiting the imminent arrival of Hurricane Michelle.

I found this out firsthand recently when I was asked, for the third year in a row, to deliver the Swan 51 Wind Dancer from Lunenburg, Nova Scotia, to St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Onboard with me would be Tom Parry, a close friend and retired U.S. nuclear attack submarine captain, and Dave Perry, the dock foreman at Morris Yachts in Bass Harbor, Maine.

On Monday Oct. 29, I received the passage weather and routing packet by fax from Commanders' Weather. The packet included daily weather forecast charts from Oct. 29 through Nov. 5, a Jenifer Clark's Gulfstream chart, and a written routing plan and weather forecast. At the end of the written forecast under the heading "Tropics" was the statement: "There is some concern in the tropics this morning with an area of lower pressure in the western Caribbean." In a follow-up phone conversation, Commanders' Weather verified the low was indeed in the southwest Caribbean, and it was developing and moving slowly. Their weather models had it moving over Florida possibly by Nov. 2 or 3, and continuing offshore to the southeast of Bermuda by Nov. 4 or 5, with anticipated winds to exceed 30 knots.

We had a favorable weather window for the passage from Nova Scotia to Bermuda, and anticipated arrival on Nov. 3. We departed Lunenburg midmorning on Tuesday Oct. 30 on the backside of the third cold front. The temperature was in the mid-30s, and the wind was 30 knots out of the northwest. By the following evening, we were approaching the Gulf Stream, and both the temperature and the breeze moderated considerably, providing us with a pleasant transit.

We had been alerted to the area of developing low pressure in the southwest Caribbean on Sunday, Oct. 28. While listening to Herb Hilgenberg on Southbound II on HF SSB the following Tuesday, we learned that the system had become a tropical depression located off Honduras in the southwest Caribbean, and it was anticipated to move slowly to the NNW for the next two to three days.

On Thursday, Nov. 1, the National Weather Service issued its first weather advisory regarding this system. It had been upgraded to a tropical storm, named Michelle, and a hurricane watch had been issued for Cuba. The advisory gave projected locations and wind strengths through 1800 on Sunday, Nov. 4. At that time it would have a forecast wind strength of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots.

We were halfway to Bermuda with an estimated arrival the morning of Saturday, Nov. 3. That schedule would have us in port 24 hours before the weather advisory placed Hurricane Michelle some 1,250 nm to the southwest. Once safely in St. George's Harbour, we would be able to assess the situation and our options.

We arrived off Bermuda in the predawn hours Saturday. After contacting Bermuda Harbour Radio, we received permission to proceed into St. George's Harbour, where we anchored off Ordnance Island and slept until morning.

Wind Dancer was tied up at the Customs dock on Ordnance Island at around 0900 to complete the necessary customs and immigration procedures. The officials were a good source of local knowledge and also furnished us with copies of the Bermuda Weather Service analysis and two- to five-day wind/sea forecast charts. It was clear from talking with them and reviewing the current batch of charts that life was about to get interesting. The forecasts indicated Hurricane Michelle was heading for Bermuda with a projected arrival sometime Tuesday Nov. 6.

A
crowded
harbor

After
being
cleared
into
Bermuda,
we
headed
over
to
Dowling's
Fuel
Dock
to
take
on
fuel
and
water,
and
to
pay
our
respects
to
our
good
friend
George
Dowling
and
his
family.
While
at
the
fuel
dock
I
went
on
a
scouting
mission
to
find
berthing
space.
Because
it
was
near
the
end
of
the
annual
fall
delivery
season
south
to
the
Caribbean
and
given
the
developing
weather
to
the
south,
St.
George's
Harbour
was
a
busy
place.
A
number
of
yachts
had stayed in Bermuda; others like us continued to arrive; and the Swan fall rally, southbound, was also in port. In his Friday evening broadcast, Hilgenberg had begun to advise his listeners to find shelter, including telling vessels that had recently left Bermuda to return. The wharves were full, but I was able to locate space at the end of the dock at St. George's Dinghy Club.

At the Dinghy Club Tom Whayman, the dockmaster, took our lines as we came in stern-to to the outboard return of their new concrete dock. It was good to see Whayman again and to know that we could look forward to his local knowledge, advice and assistance in the days to come.

A plan of action

With Wind Dancer secure at the Dinghy Club, Parry, Perry and I had a brief meeting to develop a preliminary plan of action and then we got after it. Parry went up to the Dinghy Club to talk with Whayman about his thoughts regarding the storm, the availability of a mooring and his advice on various anchorages. Perry started the task of organizing gear and cleaning up the boat; I headed down to town to make phone calls back to the States. I also stopped by Dowling's Fuel Dock once again to sit with Dowling to chat and pick his brain — filled with a lifetime of local knowledge — and to ask his advice. When I arrived back at the boat Parry and Perry had everything onboard back in shape and had begun to inventory all our ground tackle and related equipment.

We were up early on Sunday morning, and listened to the local Bermuda weather forecast on VHF radio. The forecast issued at 0530 stated that Hurricane Michelle continued to be a threat to Bermuda and was due sometime Tuesday. I walked down to the Customs Office to check the current weather charts and call Commanders' Weather.

It was clear Bermuda was on the centerline of the projected path for Hurricane Michelle. Commanders' Weather confirmed that their models showed Michelle would pass through the vicinity of Bermuda midday and into the night of Tuesday Nov. 6. They couldn't be specific as to the wind strength but speculated it would be 50 to 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. They suggested I call back later in the day for an update and "Get ready!"

Back onboard, we had a strategy session and concluded we should fully strip Wind Dancer topside, securely stow all gear below, and prepare all of the ground tackle. We realized it was also necessary to develop an anchor plan.

Finding a spot

Looking at the detailed chart of St. George's Harbour, we found a number of locations and a few possible hiding spots. Our large dinghy had been left in Nova Scotia, and our onboard dinghy was fitted with a 4-hp motor. It was clearly inadequate to explore a harbor the size of St. George's. Then Perry remembered his father had been stationed in Bermuda while in the U.S. Navy. He had developed a friendship with a local fisherman and his family. Parry and I began the task of removing sails, bimini and unnecessary deck gear, while Perry set out to find his father's friend.

Parry and I were stowing gear when we heard an approaching boat followed by a knocking on the hull. I looked up through the companionway and there stood Perry, grinning from ear to ear, on the foredeck of a brightly colored local fishing boat of about 30 feet. He had indeed found his father's friend, Ed Welch. I grabbed the chart of the harbor and a sketch I had made showing the probable wind directions in relation to the potential hurricane tracks and the harbor, and we were off!

Our tour took us clockwise around the harbor. In passing through the channel between Paget Island and Smith's Island, we noted a few boats were already on moorings inside the ledges of Rocky Island. Smith's Sound was a known hurricane hole, and as we came around the eastern end of the island the Sound came into view and we were stunned. Not a very large area, it was already packed with boats of all sizes. What struck us was that once the wind came up and began to clock or back, this area was going to be trouble. Boats of various sizes would swing, and there was nowhere near enough room.

From Smith Hole we explored the tight anchorage below Skinners Hill and also inside of Great Island, and both were chock-a-block full of small, local fishing boats on moorings. We found a great spot in the area between Smith's Island and Brooks Island unfortunately occupied by a very large motor yacht. As we passed around Brooks Island and proceeded down the south shore of the harbor, we made note of anchorage space off the old U.S. Navy Yard farther to the west. Passing through the old railroad trestle abutments between Stocks Point and Stokes Point, we explored the basin inside. There were a few boats on moorings along the south and eastern side; however, there was still good anchorage right in the middle of the basin with plenty of swing room.

"No anchoring"

We then took a run down Ferry Reach. The few moorings were already occupied with local vessels and although a potential anchorage, the area was remote, exposed, and was noted "no anchoring" on the chart.

Back in the harbor we nosed into Mullet Bay to confirm that it was completely jammed with small fishing boats on moorings in shallow water. Proceeding from the far western corner of St. George's Harbour up along the western shore, we noted a potential anchorage off the slipway and another off Captain Smoke's Marina at the southwestern end of the commercial wharf. Up past Ordnance Island, the traditional anchorage area for yachts was both already full and appeared to have a dangerous mix of yachts on moorings and yachts on multiple anchors, all in extremely close quarters.

Making our way back up to the Dinghy Club, we noted another possible anchorage right out in the pocket between the Dinghy Club and the Town Cut channel.

Back at the Dinghy Club we thanked Welch for the harbor tour and assured him that his help had been extremely valuable. Back onboard Wind Dancer, Parry, Perry and I made notes on the chart and ranked our various anchoring options. We then completed work on deck, and Perry went up the mast to remove the wind instrument and to check all the halyard leads at the masthead. We had rigged the running backstays, inner forestay and secured all our spare halyards to the slotted toerail to keep them away from the mast and each other, in addition to providing extra support in the event of a standing-rigging failure.

Going subtropical

An afternoon phone call to Commanders' Weather yielded news that Hurricane Michelle was forecast to weaken, going subtropical with winds of 60 knots and gusts to 65 knots as it tracked to a location estimated at 60 miles southwest of Bermuda by noon on Tuesday Nov. 6. I was also told a significant cold front would be coming off the coast of New England, and it was projected that both systems would merge on Tuesday. Although the current track was consistent, the cold front could cause Michelle to track north as the two systems merged.

Wind Dancer was as stripped down as it could be, and all loose equipment was stowed below. It was secure at the Dinghy Club dock, and we had developed our anchoring plan. The goal was to stay put at the Dinghy Club until it was clear what track Michelle was going to take. At that time we would make our move and claim our preferred anchorage. All of our ground tackle was ready. It was time to assist other yachts, and wait.

Monday morning we got a new copy of the Bermuda Weather Service charts and called Commanders' Weather. Commanders' reported that Michelle had rapidly weakened, with Nassau in the Bahamas experiencing winds of only 45 knots. The forecast was that it would track south of Bermuda and we could anticipate winds out of the north to northeast of 30 to 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots peaking in Bermuda on Tuesday evening. That was refreshing news in contrast to the graphics of the Bermuda Weather Service charts for Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane Michelle and the cold front coming off the New England coast were clearly depicted. The news from our friends at Commanders' Weather had been good.

At 1700 Monday, we listened to the revised weather alert transmitted on the VHF radio by the Bermuda Weather Service. Michelle was still a reality and continued to move in our direction. The system was weakening and was projected to track south and then east of Bermuda. Michelle was expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, with winds of 60 knots and gusts to 70 knots. Good news.

It was time to make our move while our preferred anchorage for that track was still wide open. We set out into the darkening twilight. We motored out to our chosen anchorage in the flats in front of the Dinghy Club. If the forecast were correct, as the system approached, the wind could be anticipated to fill in and build from the east. It would then build and back around to the northeast, to north, before finally backing to the northwest and diminishing. The flats were well protected from those wind directions because of the landmass and ridge extending behind the Dinghy Club, and the fetch would be minimal.

We went out into the flat, circled the area a few times to get our bearings, and dropped our primary anchor. There was a light breeze out of the north when we set anchor. We were anchored in the center of our chosen territory. In the daylight we would make final preparations for the storm.

Checking the swing

On Tuesday morning after listening to the local weather forecast, we picked up new charts from Bermuda Weather. Back at Wind Dancer we set up our two primary anchors so we would swing through the center of our anchorage as the anticipated winds shifted. There was another yacht to the west of us hanging on a single anchor with a significant amount of scope out. We went over in the dinghy to visit them and determined that if the wind were to swing unpredictably all the way around to the west, they would indeed enter our area of swing; yet, we would also be set to the east, and there would not be any interference.

We wanted to set our 60-lb CQR anchor on a continuous 3/8-inch chain rode out to the northeast with 150 feet of scope set in approximately 12 feet of water on a mud bottom over a coral base. That was our primary ground tackle, and I wanted it set into the direction of the strongest anticipated wind intensity and direction. We would also ride on this anchor as the system approached, and the wind was expected to fill in out of the east. Our second anchor was a 60-lb Danforth with 50 feet of 3/8-inch chain and 150 feet of 3/4-inch three-strand nylon rode set out to the northwest. This second anchor was set as a backup in the event that our primary anchor dragged and also as the riding anchor when the wind backed around to the north and northwest as the system tracked past Bermuda to the south and east.

The primary chain rode was secured to a 7/8-inch three-strand nylon tether that was shackled to the chain outboard, led through the bow chock, and cleated to one of the two bow cleats. The chain was eased out to form a slack loop transferring the load to the tether; the wildcat on the windlass was locked down and dogged; and canvas chafe gear was installed on the tether at the chock.

As an additional backup, the tail end of the tether was cleated to the second bow cleat, and the standard tether with chain hook was also rigged and secured. The nylon rode for the second anchor was secured to the second bow cleat, and canvas chafe gear was installed on the rode at the chock. We had attached marker floats to both anchors so we could monitor their location. As the breeze was still out of the NNW, we spent Tuesday hanging on our secondary anchor while anticipating a wind shift to the east when the system approached later in the day.

As we went to sleep, the wind was still out of the NNW at 15 to 20 knots. Wind Dancer continued to ride smoothly on what was intended as our secondary anchor; and interestingly, the float for our other anchor was just off our stern to starboard.

Early morning wind

I was checking everything at regular intervals. Around midnight the wind increased, yet the direction remained constant. In our conservative mode we had removed our masthead wind transducer, so all I had to go on in the wind, rain and darkness were a few landmarks: the float from our primary anchor, the feel of the boat and estimations. It wasn't until about 0400 that it really began to blow. The entire boat shuddered with some of the gusts. When I checked our position and the wind direction, the only thing that had changed was the intensity. Our position and orientation remained constant. I checked the automated weather forecast on the VHF, and at 0400 it was unchanged from the forecast we had heard the previous evening. Certainly something was going on, because the wind had never clocked around to the east to indicate the approach of Michelle.

At sunrise on Wednesday morning, although the wind was still blustery and out of the NNW, the sun was breaking through the clouds. The storm system appeared to be breaking up, and the wind was moderating. What was unclear was what had happened. The wind had been intense in the early hours before dawn but not from the directions anticipated. After scribbling a few diagrams and hashing it over, we were still confused.

We checked our rodes for fairleads and chafe, ensured that all the chafe gear was in place and headed ashore. I called Commanders' Weather to inquire about their take on our observed conditions and was told that the cold front that had been to the northwest had accelerated overnight and passed over Bermuda in the early hours of the morning. The front had indeed passed over us, and the blustery wind from the NNW was the result of a strong northerly pressure gradient over Bermuda. The frontal passage had become the dominant weather feature that night, and Hurricane Michelle was still well south of Bermuda. Michelle had no core left, having become nothing more than a large cloud shield, and was merging with the tail of the cold front. As the system moved off to the east and tracked north the conditions in Bermuda were forecast to improve.

We checked with Bermuda Harbour Radio on VHF, and it was reported that the winds recorded the previous night at the anemometer at Fort George on the hilltop overlooking St. George's Harbour were in the 40-knot range with gusts into the 50s. Fortunately no damage was reported by any of the yachts in the harbor. Extensive preparations had been taken by many. Luckily for us, Hurricane Michelle had become a reality check and a valuable exercise. On Wednesday morning, we were one of a number of yachts departing from Bermuda for destinations in the Caribbean.