Researchers at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University have published their annual tropical and hurricane analysis and predictions. There is an above-average probability of major hurricane landfalls in the Caribbean and the United States in 2011, according to the report. A summary of the report stated, “We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Our seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”
The report predicts the season will bring 16 named storms, with nine of them attaining hurricane status, and five of them becoming major hurricanes. There is a 72% chance of a hurricane reaching the U.S. coastline, as compared to a 52% average chance for the last century.
The full report, Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011, by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, is available here.